Small direct flows can have broader incidence.
The U.S. China-origin focus import line is measured in hundreds of millions, but the downstream gross-output footprint is larger.
Actionable Insight Report 002
Rare Earth GVC Transition.
A compact structural screen of China-origin rare-earth focus flows, downstream value-added exposure, substitution candidates, and transition constraints.
$636.5M2024 U.S. China-origin focus imports
$1.01BU.S. IO gross-output footprint
1.58xPrice-pressure multiplier in the report screen
Client decision supported
Treat rare-earth exposure as a value-chain transition problem, not just a small import line.
Substitution is constrained by qualification.
Processing capacity, product quality, customer approvals, and procurement rules determine whether visible alternative origins can become suppliers.
Separate monitoring from sourcing moves.
The report helps teams decide which exposures require supplier qualification, inventory review, market monitoring, or further product-level evidence.
Visual evidence in the report
Three charts clients can scan before opening the PDF.
Trade trendMeasured China-origin focus imports.
Shows direct U.S. focus imports while keeping the HS6 product-boundary caveat visible.
Swipe horizontally on mobile to inspect the full figure.
Figure description and source
Measured China-origin focus imports. Shows direct U.S. focus imports while keeping the HS6 product-boundary caveat visible. Source: CEPII BACI HS02 V202601; OECD ICIO 2023 edition (2020 table). Analysts’ calculations.
Downstream footprintWhere value-added exposure appears.
Maps direct focus flows into the wider production sectors that depend on rare-earth inputs.
Swipe horizontally on mobile to inspect the full figure.
Figure description and source
Where value-added exposure appears. Maps direct focus flows into the wider production sectors that depend on rare-earth inputs. Source: CEPII BACI HS02 V202601; OECD ICIO 2023 edition (2020 table). Analysts’ calculations.
Supplier platformsVisible alternatives still need qualification.
Alternative trade platforms are candidates for review, not approved suppliers.
Swipe horizontally on mobile to inspect the full figure.
Figure description and source
Visible alternatives still need qualification. Alternative trade platforms are candidates for review, not approved suppliers. Source: CEPII BACI HS02 V202601; OECD ICIO 2023 edition (2020 table). Analysts’ calculations.
Source: CEPII BACI HS02 V202601; OECD ICIO 2023 edition (2020 table). Analysts’ calculations.
Methodology and limitations
These figures are public-data screening tools for identifying products, sectors, and network nodes that warrant further diligence. They are not company-level bills of materials, qualified-supplier lists, tariff rulings, or causal forecasts; definitions, assumptions, reference years, and sources should be read with the report.
Read the full method and definitions in the PDFHow to use it
Turn the public screen into a qualified-supplier and inventory decision.
AIR 002 is designed for teams evaluating critical-minerals exposure across procurement, industrial policy, defense-adjacent supply chains, energy-transition inputs, and advanced manufacturing dependencies.
Recommended next step
Translate the HS6 focus products into client-specific bills of materials, qualified suppliers, customer approval requirements, inventory buffers, and market-monitoring triggers.