New Section 301 tariffs put a $8.8 billion duty base on 52 strategic products
Lithium-ion batteries carry 46.5 percent of that duty base, and China's share of these strategic products has fallen more slowly than its share of everything else.
Lithium-ion batteries carry almost half of the $8.8 billion duty base
Exhibit 1. Gross scheduled duty base by policy group, eight largest, US dollars, with final listed rate
Note: Duty base = final listed Section 301 rate × 2024 China-origin imports in the HS6 proxy universe; a screening estimate, not a customs invoice.
Source: CEPII BACI HS02 (V202601); USTR Section 301 notices (89 FR 76581; 89 FR 101682); Symbiosis United Analytics analysis.
At a glance
- A targeted shock on a narrow base. The actions cover 52 strategic HS6 products carrying $25.7 billion of U.S. imports from China, a small part of the $449.6 billion the U.S. imported from China in 2024.
- An $8.8 billion duty base. Applying listed final rates to 2024 China-origin flows gives a gross scheduled duty base of $8.8 billion, equal to 34.4 percent of the China-origin imports in scope.
- The exposure is concentrated in batteries. Lithium-ion batteries carry 46.5 percent of the duty base and 64.0 percent of the China-origin imports in scope; the top three groups carry 78.4 percent.
- These products are slow to switch. Since 2015, China's share of U.S. imports of the strategic products fell from 17.3 percent to 15.0 percent, against a fall from 21.8 percent to 14.2 percent for all other products.
The policy shock
Section 301 has moved from a broad bilateral pressure tool toward a targeted industrial-policy instrument. USTR's September 2024 notice finalised increases across 14 strategic product groups, phased in from 27 September 2024 and from 1 January 2025 and 2026; a December 2024 notice added tungsten, polysilicon and wafer lines effective 1 January 2025.
The schedule fixes both a rate and a clock. Products effective in 2024 are already in landed costs; 2025 products are current purchasing and contract-renewal issues; 2026 products still matter because supplier qualification often takes longer than a budget year.
Where the duty lands
Batteries dominate because their import base is large, not because their rate is highest: a 25 percent rate applies to $16.5 billion of China-origin imports. Face masks ($1.7 billion of duty base) and semiconductors ($1.1 billion) follow, while electric vehicles and medical gloves face 100 percent rates on much smaller flows.
How fast sourcing adjusts
The first Section 301 period offers a benchmark. Since 2015, China's share of U.S. imports fell far less for today's strategic products than for everything else. In a two-way fixed-effects panel of 4,891 HS6 products over 2015–2024, the strategic products' China share was 4.4 percentage points higher after 2018 relative to other products (robust standard error 0.7 points). This is a benchmark, not a causal estimate of the new schedule: it suggests these are slow-adjusting sourcing categories.
China's share has fallen more slowly for strategic tariff products than for other products
Exhibit 2. Weighted China-origin share of U.S. imports, 2015–2024; shading marks the post-2018 tariff period
Source: CEPII BACI HS02 (V202601); Symbiosis United Analytics analysis.
Implications for decision-makers
Segment, don't exit.
Sort each product into price protection, dual qualification, redesign or monitoring, based on China share, qualification time and pass-through rights.
Model the cash before the sourcing.
Duties are paid at entry while customer recovery lags the contract cycle; stress-test cash conversion, inventory timing and credit headroom first.
Validate at the tariff line before acting.
The HS6 screen sets priorities; HTS classification, exclusions, origin rules and Chapter 99 treatment must be confirmed with trade counsel before any volume moves.
About this research
This report is part of our independent public research. It was self-funded and was not commissioned or funded by any company, government or client. Policy status was checked against official sources on 1 May 2026. Edition 1.0 — 1 May 2026, first publication.
Symbiosis United Analytics (2026). U.S.-China Strategic Tariff Exposure Radar. Actionable Insight Report 001, edition 1.0. https://symbiosisunited.com/research/air-001/