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Mexico now supplies 1.8 times as much U.S. physical-AI hardware as China

China's share of the $72.5 billion trade in robot, sensor, control and motor hardware has more than halved since 2010, and half of the trade sits in controls and power.

Physical AI Product Network

Actionable Insight Report 004 by Symbiosis United Analytics. Published 21 June 2026, edition 1.0, 4-minute read.

Download the report (PDF, 11 pages) Cite this report

Contents
  1. At a glance
  2. Context
  3. Where the value sits
  4. China's declining share
  5. Who supplies the U.S.
  6. Downstream exposure
  7. Implications
  8. About this research

At a glance

  • Controls and power make up half of U.S. imports. Of the $72.5 billion the U.S. imported in 2024, $37.4 billion (51.6 percent) sits in one hardware function.
  • China's share has more than halved since 2010. It fell from a 28.8 percent peak in 2010 to 12.5 percent in 2024; China-origin imports peaked at $14.6 billion in 2018.
  • Mexico is now the largest origin. The U.S. imported $16.3 billion from Mexico and $9.1 billion from China, 1.8 times as much.
  • Exposure travels downstream. Input-output modelling links the China-origin imports to a $13.0 billion footprint across U.S. production (1.44 times the direct flow).

Mexico is now the largest origin of U.S. physical-AI hardware; China is second

Exhibit 1. U.S. imports by origin, 2024, US dollars and share of the total

Flow chart of U.S. imports of physical-AI hardware in 2024, $72.5 billion in total, by origin: Mexico $16.3 billion (22.4%), China $9.1 billion (12.5%), Germany $5.5 billion (7.5%), Japan $4.6 billion (6.4%), Canada $4.5 billion (6.3%), Vietnam $4.4 billion (6.1%), Thailand $4.1 billion (5.7%), Other Asia n.e.s. $3.1 billion (4.3%), all other origins $20.9 billion (28.8%). Takeaway: Mexico supplies 1.8 times as much as China.

Note: “Other Asia, n.e.s.” is the reporting code commonly used for Taiwan.

Source: CEPII BACI HS02 (V202601); Symbiosis United Analytics analysis.

Context

Physical-AI systems (robots, autonomous vehicles, automated logistics) depend on a hardware stack well beyond the robot itself: cameras, navigation devices, sensors, control boards, power converters and motors.

This report screens U.S. imports of that stack across six hardware functions from 2005 to 2024, measures how much comes from China, and traces China-origin exposure into U.S. production using input-output tables.

Where the value sits

Controls and power alone account for $37.4 billion of the $72.5 billion total. China supplies 11.2 percent of that function, and between 10.2 and 15.3 percent of every other function except finished robots (3.6 percent).

Half of U.S. physical-AI hardware imports are controls and power; China supplies one-eighth overall

Exhibit 2. U.S. imports by hardware function, 2024, US dollars, with China-origin share

Bar chart of 2024 U.S. imports by hardware function: controls and power $37.4B (11.2% from China), vision systems $16.2B (15.0%), actuation $6.1B (15.3%), sensors and instruments $6.1B (10.2%), navigation and sensing $5.8B (14.3%), robots $833M (3.6%). Takeaway: half of the value is in controls and power.

Note: Hardware functions group the HS6 products in the AIR 004 screen.

Source: CEPII BACI HS02 (V202601); Symbiosis United Analytics analysis.

China's declining share

China's share of U.S. imports peaked at 28.8 percent in 2010, stayed between 25.2 and 27.2 percent through 2018, and has fallen every year since, to 12.5 percent in 2024. The decline is not only relative: China-origin imports peaked at $14.6 billion in 2018 and were $9.1 billion in 2024, while total imports kept growing.

China's share of U.S. physical-AI hardware imports has more than halved since its 2010 peak

Exhibit 3. China-origin share of U.S. imports of the screened products, 2005–2024

Line chart: China's share rose from 22.1% in 2005 to a 28.8% peak in 2010, stayed between 25.2% and 27.2% through 2018, then fell every year to 12.5% in 2024. Takeaway: the share has more than halved since 2010.

Source: CEPII BACI HS02 (V202601); Symbiosis United Analytics analysis.

Who supplies the U.S.

Mexico supplied $16.3 billion in 2024, 22.4 percent of U.S. imports and 1.8 times China's $9.1 billion (Exhibit 1). Germany, Japan, Canada, Vietnam and Thailand each supply between 5.7 and 7.5 percent.

Downstream exposure

Input-output modelling allocates the $9.1 billion of China-origin imports to the U.S. sectors that use them and traces the linkages onward. The resulting footprint is $13.0 billion across U.S. production, 1.44 times the direct flow, with $6.1 billion of associated value added. Machinery and motor vehicles carry the largest footprints.

Machinery and motor vehicles carry the largest modelled footprint of China-origin hardware

Exhibit 4. Modelled downstream footprint by U.S. production sector, eight largest, US dollars

Bar chart of the modelled downstream footprint by U.S. sector: machinery and equipment $2.0B, motor vehicles $2.0B, electrical equipment $1.5B, telecommunications $1.4B, computer, electronic and optical equipment $1.2B, fabricated metal products $658M, IT and information services $632M, other transport equipment $538M. Takeaway: machinery and motor vehicles carry the most.

Note: Modelled with OECD input-output tables; a screen for diligence, not a forecast.

Source: OECD ICIO, 2023 edition (2020 table); CEPII BACI HS02 (V202601); Symbiosis United Analytics analysis.

Implications for decision-makers

  • Look beyond industrial robots.

    Cameras, navigation devices, sensors, controls, converters and motors determine whether a system can perceive, decide and move.

  • Switching origin is an engineering process.

    Alternative origins matter only after qualification, safety requirements, firmware, calibration and customer approvals are considered.

  • Build deployment-level hardware maps.

    The next diligence step is a bill of materials and spares register organised by perceive, decide, control, move and power functions.

About this research

This report is part of our independent public research. It was self-funded and was not commissioned or funded by any company, government or client. Edition 1.0, published 21 June 2026.

Symbiosis United Analytics (2026). Physical AI Product Network. Actionable Insight Report 004, edition 1.0. https://symbiosisunited.com/research/air-004/

BibTeX
@techreport{sua2026air004,
  author      = {{Symbiosis United Analytics}},
  title       = {Physical AI Product Network},
  institution = {Symbiosis United Analytics},
  type        = {Actionable Insight Report},
  number      = {004},
  note        = {Edition 1.0},
  year        = {2026},
  month       = jun,
  url         = {https://symbiosisunited.com/research/air-004/}
}

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